Global energy demand is forecast to rise by 41% between 2012 and 2035, according to a new report BP Energy Outlook 2034 (Outlook), which was published by British oil and gas giant BP. Outlook’s fourth edition explains that the world’s energy needs continue to grow, mainly due to China and India, as well as other emerging countries. However, it is slowly slowing. The forecast periods’ last years will see energy demand decline in North America, Europe, and Asia. The emerging economies will account for 90% the majority of world energy demand growth. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy market Fossil fuels will continue representing at least 80% of energy sources, with coal, natural gas and oil making up about 27% each of the total mix. Hydroelectricity, nuclear energy and other renewables will make up the rest. The fastest-growing fossil fuel is natural gas. It is increasingly being used as an alternative to coal in many sectors, including power generation. Bob Dudley (BP Group CEO) stated that “Outlook highlights competition and the market’s power in unlocking technology, innovation, and meeting the world’s energy requirements.” All these factors are positive for the future of energy in the world. “The Outlook brings us to three major questions: Can there be enough energy to supply growing demand? Can we meet demand reliably? What are the implications of satisfying demand? The first is “Is the supply adequate, secure, and sustainable?” Due to increasing energy efficiency, the growth rate of global demand has been slower than in past decades. We are confident in the ability to maintain pace with global technological, investment, and policy trends. “New energy sources such as shale gas and tight oil will make up a large portion of global supply growth.” This report offers an optimistic view on security. The US will eventually be energy independent, but India, China, and Europe will continue to rely on imports. Dudley notes that Asia is forecast to become the world’s major energy importing region “This need not be a cause for concern if the market is allowed to do its work, with new supply chains opening up to these big consuming regions.” CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions are expected to increase by 29% over the 2012-2035 period, with all that growth coming from the emerging economies. The growth in emissions is predicted to slow as natural gas replaces coal. In the US, it may even decline. Many advanced countries will experience a mixture of increased economic growth and falling energy consumption in the latter half of this study period. Christof Ruhl is BP’s Chief Economics Officer. He said that this process shows both the strength of competition and economic forces. Simply put, people find ways to save money by using energy in more efficient ways. It’s also better for the environment: the more energy you use, the less carbon you emit. The US’s CO2 emissions are now back at 1990s levels. Primary energy Outlook predicts that energy consumption worldwide will increase by an average 1.5% per year to 2035,, with a 2% annual average to 2020, and 1.2% thereafter. 95 percent of the growth will be from non-OECD countries, mainly India and China. This is more than half of the total increase. The energy consumption in non-OECD country is expected to rise to by the end of this study period, compared with just 5% in OECD countries. Even though their economies will continue to grow, the energy needs of OECD countries will be lower than 2030,. Although new energy sources are being developed, the dominant fossil fuels, such as oil, coal, and gas, will remain. 2035. will have 5-7% each of the energy sources. Oil will be an energy source. The demand for oil is expected to grow at 0.8% annually, which is slower than other major fuels. In spite of this slowdown, by 2035 demand for oil and other liquid fuels will be almost 19 million barrels per day higher than today. Most of the oil supply from the Middle East, Americas and non-OPEC countries will come from these regions. Although mature oil sources will decline in future, this will not be a problem as there is increased production from the US, Canada, and Brazil. Saudi Arabia will be overtaken by the US as world’s largest producer of oil and other liquids next year. The US is expected to import oil at a rate of 75%. during the period under review. Although OPEC is likely to see a decrease in oil production, its share will rise again following 2020.. The use of natural gas for energy is expected to rise significantly faster than other fossil fuels. Natural gas demand will increase at an average 1.9% annually over the course of the study. Non-OECD nations are expected to account for 78% of the growth. The majority of rising demand for natural gas comes from the power sector and industry. By 2035, shale gas is expected to represent 68% of US gas production, 21% of world gas and 46% of the increase in global demand for gas. The production of US shale gas is likely to decrease after 2020,, but will increase in other regions of the globe. The US should still account for 71% global shalegas production in 2035. despite the US’s decline. The demand for coal will grow but not as quickly as that for oil. The demand for coal is expected to increase by 1.1% annually until 2035. After , growth in will slow to 0.6% per year. Around 87% the majority of global growth will be driven by India and China. 2012, China, India and the rest of the world represented 58% global coal demand. This is predicted to increase to 64% as 2035.. Additional sources of energy: Nuclear power will grow by 1.9% annually during this study. China, India, and Russia will account for 96% most of the global growth. The European Union and the United States are expected to see a decrease in nuclear power production. The annual increase in hydroelectric power production is expected to be about 1.8% per year until 2035. The majority of the growth will be from Brazil, India, and China. The class of renewable energy will grow rapidly, increasing by 6.4% annually during the course. Five percent of global electricity production today comes from renewables, this is expected to increase to 14% by 2035. Renewables refers to energy that comes from: Sunlight Wind Rain Tides Waves Geothermal heat The authors wrote: “While the OECD economies have led in renewables growth, renewables in the non-OECD are catching up and are expected to account for 45% of the total by 2035. 2025.” Source BP Energy Outlook 2035. Renewables will have a greater share of primary energy that nuclear, including biofuels
Global energy demand to rise 41% by 2035
