A record drought occurred in Syria, from 2006 up to 2010,. This was likely due to human-induced global warming. A new study indicates that the drought could have fuelled the 2011 Syrian revolt and subsequent war. This was the most severe drought ever seen in Syria. Spring 2011. saw dispossessed farmers move to urban areas where poverty, government mismanagement and other factors fuelled the upheaval. Unprecedented droughts (brown zones) that lasted 2006 through 2010 swept across Iraq, Syria, and large parts of Turkey. (Credit: NASA) The uprising evolved into a complex multinational war that has so far killed at least 200,000 men, women and children, and displaced millions. Researchers from Columbia University and the University of California published the study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Citation below. The study’s co-author is Professor Richard Seager from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. He said that the researchers are not saying that the drought was the cause of the conflict. It was likely that, along with all other stressors it contributed to open conflict. A drought that severe was caused by human-driven drying in that area made it more likely.” There is increasing evidence that extreme weather conditions such as droughts or high temperatures increase the likelihood of violent acts, from small-scale attacks to large-scale conflicts. More conflicts likely due to global warming Some research suggests that future conflicts will be caused by human-caused global warming. Many researchers believe this is happening already. Prof. Seager and colleagues point out that “Recent journalistic accounts and other reports have linked warfare in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere in part to environmental issues, especially lack of water.” The recent half-decade-long drought affected the Fertile Crescent, which spans much of Syria, Iraq and parts of Turkey, where crop and livestock farming is believed to have started about 12,000 years ago. The record drought saw many Syrian farmers abandon the country and move to cities. This region has seen natural weather swings. According to previous research and the study, the Fertile Crescent’s temperature has increased between 1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius (about 2degF) since 1900. There also was a decrease in the amount of wet-season rain. Researchers found that the climate trend presented by these researchers matches models of human-induced global heating and cannot be explained by natural weather swings. Global warming and two effects Prof. Seager, along with his colleagues, claim that global warming has caused the following: Indirectly, it seems that global warming has weakened the wind patterns that bring rain from the Mediterranean. This may have reduced precipitation in the wet seasons of November through April. 2. High temperatures lead to faster soil moisture loss during hot summers. The region experienced significant droughts during the 1900s 1980_s and 1950_s. But they weren’t as severe as the 2006-2010 dry spell that ravaged the Fertile Crescent. A research team found that an episode this severe and long-lasting would not have occurred if there had been no long-term climate change. Other studies including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s, show that the Mediterranean region is becoming increasingly dry, partly because of human-induced global warming. In the area where drought-stricken farmers moved to, the unrest started in early spring of 2011. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the already volatile Mideast will continue to become dryer as human-made global warming progresses. The contributing factor was Syria’s rapid population growth, which grew from 4 million people in the 1950s up to 22million today. Shahrzad Mohtadi (a Columbia graduate student who researched the economic and social components of this research) said that the al-Assad family encouraged water-intensive cotton exports to exacerbate the problem. Groundwater reserves that might have been available during drought years were significantly reduced by illegal irrigation well drilling. Syria’s disastrous drought caused destruction to the agriculture sector. Typically, Syria’s GDP (gross national product) was 25%. The country’s agricultural output fell by one-third. The northeast was hard hit, with livestock herds disappearing, high cereal prices, and an increase in malnutrition. 1.5% of Syrians were brought to the country from Syria, a relief for cities already trying to deal with the influx of Iraqi refugees. Mohtadi said that the Assad regime didn’t do much to provide services and employment in the areas of the rising uprising. According to the authors, “Rapid demographic changes encourage instability.” It is difficult to determine whether it was a significant or primary factor, but it can have devastating consequences when combined with preexisting acute vulnerability. Professor Solomon Hsiang of the University of California Berkeley, who studies conflict and climate, stated that the paper is the “first scientific paper that makes the case for human-caused global warming.” He also pointed out that droughts are not something that has happened in the past. The Akkadian Empire collapsed 4 ,200years ago due to a prolonged drought. Marshal Burke from Stanford University is an environmental specialist. He said that the Akkadian Empire collapsed in part due to a multi-year drought. Cane, Richard Seager and Yochanan Kushnir. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published online before printing March 2, DOI: 10.1073/pnas. 1421533112.
Study suggests that climate change is responsible for the Syrian conflict.
