British favourites such as plaice and haddock, will lose their popularity and become more costly, according to researchers from Australia, Ireland, and the UK. As North Sea temperatures rise, scientists in Australia, Ireland, and the UK reported. Temperature affects fish distributions. Some species are restricted to certain depths or habitats. The North Sea has warmed four times faster over the past four decades than the global average. It is expected to get warmer over the coming century. Researchers in fisheries have set out to study how it might impact commercial species. Are our chips and plaice becoming John Dory’s and chip? Scientists have published their results in Nature Climate Change. Citation below. A model that combined long-term data from fisheries and climate models to predict the UK’s favorite fish’s distribution over the next 50 years was developed by a team. Because of the lack of habitat at the correct depth, the team discovered that species cannot move northwards as the North Sea heats. Many species will see a decline in their numbers. This is due to higher temperatures. Louise Rutterford is a postgraduate student in biosciences from the University of Exeter. She said that “our study suggests we will see proportionally fewer of certain species we eat as they struggle with warming conditions in North Sea.” This research also provides new insights into the importance of local depths, and the associated habitats, for these species. This is something not often captured in the existing models that forecast future distributions of fish species. As North Sea temperatures rise, Sardines and Red Mullet (pictured above), gurnards and John Dory would be more prevalent, while Dover sole, plaice, and haddock would decrease. Professor Martin Genner of Fish Ecology and Evolution, University of Bristol added that “long-term, standardised fisheries surveys for many European countries and leading climate models mean this region is unique to develop and evaluate new modeling approaches.” He also said, “The modeling method used in the analysis performed exceptionally well when tested using long-term data. These results give real confidence in the ability of the model to predict future patterns for fish distributions throughout the UK. The changes will be immediately noticeable. In the coming decades, we will likely see significant changes. Professor Steve Simpson of the University of Exeter’s Marine Biology & Global Change Department stated that “our models predict that cold-water species will disappear, while warmer-water fish are likely to replace them.” We need to look beyond haddock and chips to sustain UK fisheries. Citation: “Future Fish Distributions Constrained By Depth in Warming Seas,” Louise Rutterford and Stephen Simpson. Also, Martin Genner, Pieter Jan Schon, David Sims and Jonathan Tinker. Nature Climate Change. Published 13 April 2015. DOI: 0. 1038/nclimate2607.
