In recent years, interest in solar panels has skyrocketed and they are showing up a bit here and there, for example at the furniture company Ikea. Solar panels have also been given simplified building rules when it comes to roof installations, which has made the technology more attractive to ordinary people.
Until today, however, it is not simply for ordinary people. But how can you know whether it is economically justifiable to install panels, if so how many, given the uncertainty factors that exist? This is what Nelson Sommerfeldt, PhD student at the Department of Energy Technology at KTH, has now developed a solution for.
-The method they developed is relevant for anyone who owns a building, is interested in solar cells but who are not experts in investments in energy technology. Among the target groups are boards of tenant-owner associations, landlords, homeowners, and companies.
Solar cells and shares in the same context
The method takes off in first considering the amount of solar panels needed, this taking into account a number of technical and economic aspects. Then follows risk analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation to explore the thousands of different possible alternatives, based on parameters such as solar panel costs, electricity prices, and technology life.
If, for example, we take a rooftop facing south with solar panels mounted that can handle 50 percent of the electricity demand, then the method can calculate that there is a 100 percent chance that the investment will repay. It is a low-risk investment with a nominal return of 6.6 percent. This way of describing the situation places solar panels in the same context as other investments, such as government bonds or equities. Someone who is probably more familiar to consumers than an investment in
photovoltaics.
Tools around the corner
The next step in research work is to make the calculation of solar energy method available to the general public.
We want to develop a tool that can be used by energy and climate consultants as well as solar panel vendors. This is because these professional groups are in direct contact with the buyers; landlords, tenant associations, companies and homeowners. The tool can also help politicians create better conditions, for example through subsidies, to achieve the UN’s global sustainability goals.
