If the North Sea heats at a faster rate than the rest of the world, fish and chips could soon be without haddock or plaice. Instead, researchers have warned that John Dory and red mullet will replace them with squid. It will be far more expensive to buy traditional fish species. The abundance of a species depends on its water temperature and sometimes sea depth. Many species of fish will migrate or become less popular as temperatures rise. Dover sole, plaice, and haddock populations will decrease as the North Sea heats up. In British waters, there will be an invasion by squids, cuttlefishes, anchovies and John Dory. In the coming decades, chips and plaice will be a luxury item. The temperature of the North Sea has been increasing four-fold faster than that of the global average since the 1970s. This is according to scientists writing in Nature Climate Change. There is overwhelming evidence that the North Sea will get warmer in the coming 100 year. This prompted scientists from Australia, Ireland, and the UK to investigate the potential impact on fish species. The model included meteorological predictions and long-term data from fisheries. It forecasts the distribution of Britain’s most beloved fishes over the next 50 years. They found that many species of fish need to migrate to other areas as the North Sea heats up. Many species won’t have the ability to move northwards because of the ocean’s wrong depth. The authors write that many species may become scarcer. Many North Sea fish species will experience a decline in their numbers due to higher temperatures. This will make them more costly, especially Haddock, Plaice, and Dover sole. Louise Rutterford is a doctoral student at the College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter. She said that she believes we’ll see less of certain species as they face increasing temperatures in the North Sea. “We also provide insight into the importance of local habitats and depths for these species.” This is something that’s not always captured by existing models that forecast future distributions of fish species. Will Brits switch to eating squid or chips? Professor Martin Genner of Fish Ecology and Evolution, University of Bristol said that the analysis was based on long-term data. “The model performed exceptionally well.” The model can predict the future pattern of fish distributions in the UK, which gives it real confidence. Dr. Genner said that the findings were important both for the UK’s fishing industry as well as the consumers of fish. They predicted that changes will be visible in the coming decades. Professor Steve Simpson is a Senior Lecturer at Exeter in Marine Biology & Global Change. He said that “our models predict that cold-water species will disappear, while warmer water fish are likely to replace them.” We need to look beyond haddock and chips to sustain UK fisheries. References: Louise Rutterford and Stephen Simpson. Nature Climate Change. “Future fish distributions are constrained by warming oceans.” Published 13 April 2015. DOI: 0. 1038/nclimate2607.
