Two scientists from Oxford and the Global Challenges Foundation listed 12 potential catastrophic global threats that could kill humankind. These risks range from an eruption of supervolcanoes, global pandemics, nuclear wars, artificial intelligence to an asteroids collision. Some of these possible catastrophes, like the supervolcano eruption or impact of an asteroid large, are out of our reach. Some, such as global climate change and artificial intelligence, are within our reach, while others, like the eruption of a supervolcano, could be catastrophic. According to the team, the research was the first that created a list of global risks and their “infinite” consequences. These are the 12 most serious risks that could lead to the demise of humanity. Source: Global Challenges Foundation. The report’s authors stated that it was the first to present a structured summary of major events and attempts to give estimates for probabilities. They also hope to encourage dialogue and increase the use of methods for assessing possible risks. They added that the idea of multiple global risks to our civilization at the start of the 21st Century is widely accepted by the scientific community and studied at many top universities. However, there’s no single coordinated way to deal with this set of risks and make them profitable. The authors have divided the risks into four groups: Current. 2. Exogenic (deadly formed/occurring at the Earth’s surface). 3. Emerging. 4. Policy global. Climate Change and Current Risks: Estimates are not certain. Global average temperature could rise by as much or more than the middle estimates indicate, with temperatures increasing 4degC to 6degC faster than preindustrial levels. The Report says that mass deaths, famines and social collapse are all possible under this scenario. Nuclear War: There is less chance of nuclear war between Russia or the West. There is always the possibility of accidental or deliberate conflicts. There is an 10% chance of conflict in the coming 100 year. Ecological Catastrophe is a situation in which the ecosystem experiences a drastic, potentially permanent decrease in its carrying capacity, leading to mass extinction. The rate of species extinctions is increasing faster than ever before. Global Pandemic is an infectious disease spreading through the human population. According to the authors, there is reason for concern that a pandemic in global may be more likely than commonly believed. Global System Collapse is a global economic or societal collapse. A social unrest and chaos would accompany an economic collapse. Law and order will also be affected. Societal collapse is the breakdown of societies and their support networks. According to the authors, “The global economic and political system is composed of multiple actors with different objectives and many connections between them.” These complex, interconnected systems can be subject to system-wide failures due to the network’s structure – even though each part of it is reliable. The likelihood of the entire system falling apart increases as more networks depend on one another. Large Asteroid Collision Risks: A large asteroid (often 5km in diameter) strikes Earth approximately once per 20million years. A large object would produce energy 100 times more powerful than any bomb. Our planet could be hit by larger asteroids. According to scientists, the primary cause of destruction will not be the impact itself, but rather the projections into the atmosphere that create dust clouds, which could lead to an “impact winter.” A Supervolcano Eruption is an eruption that has an ejecta quantity greater than 1 km3. Thousands of times larger than regular eruptions. Aerosols and dust that are released into the atmosphere could pose a threat to human life. They would absorb sunlight and create a global volcano winter. The Earth was cooled by the Toba volcano seventy-thousand year ago. Emerging risks Synthetic Biology: These are systems and devices that can be used to create biological products and other useful applications. However, they may also attempt to trigger a pandemic. In this fast-growing area of synthetic biology, many people are concerned that there is not enough time to impose new regulations. An engineered pathogen that targets a critical component of an ecosystem or humans would be one of the worst consequences of this risk. It could happen as a result of bioterrorism or military or commercial-level bio-warfare or accidental leaking pathogens from a laboratory. Artificial Intelligence is also known as AI. It’s a sub-field of computer science which develops software and computers with high levels of intelligence. These machines can think for themselves, and even learn. Stephen Hawking, a prominent physicist fears that AI will eventually lead to the end of humanity. These are also known as “Unknown Risks”, or the unknowable unknowns within the global catastrophe challenges. Although some of these risks might seem unlikely, taken together they can pose a serious risk. According to the authors, “One solution to the Fermi paradox — the absence of alien life within the galaxy – is that intelligent life begins to destroy itself before expanding into the galaxy.” Also known as “Future Bad Governance” or “Future Bad Policy,” Global Policy Risk can be divided into two parts: actively creating worse outcomes and failing to resolve solvable issues. The first is failure to alleviate absolute poverty, and the second is the construction of a global totalitarian government. Team members stated that technology, politics, and social change could allow for new forms of governance. This is a statement they wrote in the Executive Summary. There is no single coordinated way to tackle these challenges, and make them opportunities.
