Climate change may make the Persian Gulf heat so intense that it threatens human lives, according to two scientists at Loyola Marymount University (Los Angeles) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After analyzing high-resolution climate model data, Professor Elfatih Eltahir wrote that conditions are expected to heat up by the end this century. The authors caution that this devastating information is applicable to several parts of the Persian Gulf, if there is no action taken about greenhouse gas emissions. They emphasize that there are still some chances for the survival of the Persian Gulf region if people take action now. Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain are all part of the Persian Gulf. (Image from Wikipedia) The Persian Gulf, with its intense sun and shallow water, “is a particular regional hotspot in which climate change is likely to significantly impact human habitat in the future.” It will be too hot in the shade. Dr. Eltahir, and Dr. Pal created high-resolution climate models that showed how many major cities of the Persian Gulf could become too hot to live in. Professor Eltahir said that this threshold has never been recorded for any other location in the world. Prof. Eltahir said that the “wetbulb temperature” is the temperature at which an environment becomes hostile. This measurement combines temperature and humidity. It indicates conditions where our bodies can continue to function normally without having to artificially lower the temperature. The authors stated that a person must be able to survive for at least six hours without protection if the temperature is not 35 degrees Fahrenheit. According to the National Weather Service, this is an equivalent heat index of 165 degrees F. This limit was already very close during a heatwave that last a week in Iran’s Persian Gulf. In Bandahr Mashrahr (Pop: 154,000), the capital of Mahshahr County, Khuzestan Province, Iran, the wet-bulb temperature threshold was almost reached for approximately one hour. Where will people go if the heat becomes too extreme for them to survive in? The authors warn that prolonged high temperatures can pose a danger to the health of humans. What is so special about the Persian Gulf? Extremely high temperatures are the greatest threat to the Persian Gulf. Because of the combination of low sea levels, clear skies and heat absorption-raising water bodies, this region is extremely vulnerable. All these elements combine to produce very high water temperatures, which leads to high levels of evaporation, and extreme humidity. In the Persian Gulf, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha could exceed the threshold for wet-bulb temperatures over a 30-year period. Professor Eltahir says that extreme summer heat that occurs about every 20 days today will become more common in the future. Other parts of Middle East where there is less heat forecast (e.g. the Red Sea, on the Arabian Peninsula), are expected to see wet-bulb temperatures ranging from 32degC to 34degC. These temperatures can also be dangerous to human health. In the area, there are many events where large numbers of people from around the globe gather and sit in the sun for long periods. These hot months are often when the annual Islamic pilgrimage, known as Hajj, to Mecca is held. Each year, the Hajj draws more than 2,000,000 pilgrims. The authors caution that while some countries may be able to adjust to extreme heat, others, like Yemen, might not. Elfatih A. refers to “Future temperatures in south Asia expected to rise above a threshold that allows for humans adaptability.” B. Eltahir, Jeremy S. Pal. Nature Climate Change. 26 October, 2015. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2833. Video: Climate Change and the Persian Gulf
